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Did you notice bitcoin price models are always for BTCUSD? All models will fail because BTCUSD is measured in fiat which is controlled by small group of humans with their own incentives.

A one time devaluation for example would break the models.

We don’t see power law fitted to BTCX where X is a weaker currency like Lebanese pound.

The rate to trust is BTCBTC = 1.

Narwhal Tacos 1y ago

That’s why I like to follow the price of Bitcoin in Barrels of WTI Crude Oil in your Rumble chat! I want to view price-movement in something other than fiat currency, and Oil is the best proxy I’ve found.

(FYI when I started doing that a couple years ago it was roughly 250k sats / barrel. Last Thurs I believe it was ~123k / barrel.)

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Discussion

Nicorama 1y ago

Interesting - another option is to price in m3 to try and normalize. Even priced in oil, one OPEC meeting would be enough to break any model.

Nicorama 1y ago

Wonder if anyone tried to fit power law to btc priced in m2 or m3