Last cycle the peak was only 3-4x the peak of the prior cycle, so people see ever-decreasing cycles going forward and make timid price predictions for this one.

But I think it’s the opposite. A muted prior cycle means the fiat-cost of supply is artificially low this cycle. In fact, daily supply in fiat the first time it hit 60K was higher then than it is now because 6.25x 60 > 3.125 x 105.

It’s a rare instance when supply decreased in dollars also 2.5 years later.

Which means the price has to go MUCH higher this time to create the correction. And the bold price predictions are more likely to be right than the timid ones.