The short answer is that in almost all scenarios, this strategy will result in a small, guaranteed net loss.

Our game operates on a pari-mutuel basis where all bets go into a single pool.

The key factors are:

The 5% Rake: The first thing that happens is that a 5% rake is taken from the Total Pool to create the Winners' Share. When you bet 2000 sats in total (1000 on each side), 100 sats (5% of 2000) are immediately contributed to the rake.

One Winner, One Loser: You will always have one winning bet (1000 sats) and one losing bet (1000 sats). The losing bet is lost to the prize pool.

Proportional Payout: Your winning 1000 sat bet will then get a proportional share of the Winners' Share.

Because of the 5% rake, you start with a guaranteed -100 sat position.

Your winning 1000 sat bet needs to win back more than 2000 sats for you to make a profit, which is very difficult.