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colin crypto 9mo ago

Bitcoin price has formed what I would consider a possible short term local topping pattern: three daily candles with tall upper wicks. (see white circle in 1st chart)

This doesn't mean BTC needs to correct for long. It could just be a matter of days. Or could be a bit longer.

Combine this with the pattern fitting of the Global M2 vs BTC chart, and we see a similar forecast. The "MINI RALLY THAT FAILS?" (see circled area in 2nd chart) is still playing out and hasn't been violated. This further backs up the idea of a short term correction.

Lastly, the simple fact that BTC has recently climbed into the resistance zone $89k-$92k (see white dotted line in 1st image), is another reason why BTC could cool off for a little bit before breaking through.

My general, long-term outlooks is still bullish (in the months to come), especially with that massive injection of M2 liquidity coming (yellow line on right side of the 2nd image).

So, we have, in my estimation: a short-term correction (days or several weeks at most), and then a couple months of blast-off after that.

Lastly, maybe I will be wrong and we just go up from here. That would validate the 70-day offset version of the M2 chart. We'd all welcome it.

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colin crypto 9mo ago

Update

Global M2 Money Supply vs Bitcoin

The predictive correlation forecasts a BTC blast off around May 1st, lasting for 2 months.

As we have observed, the offset appears to slowly and gradually shift as time moves on. As such, I have taken a fresh look.

Currently, it looks to me like a 108 day M2 offset has the best mathematical and visual correlation for recent time frames (the past 180 days).

For those who say "you keep changing the date", read this: x.com/ColinTCrypto/sā€¦

-- Some observations and comments --

šŸ”¹ It's amazing how the BTC price chart's valleys and peaks continues to trace the M2 line, even with the smaller movements inside this "MINI RALLY THAT FAILS?" box.

šŸ”¹ On the far right side of the chart, the M2 line appears to have taken a fairly steep correction. I think it's too early to jump to conclusions for that being the top, but it may be a future local top for BTC. Let's see what it does next. By the time we get there we will have a lot more data. That is the advantage of this correlation. We have 108 days (currently) of advance notice. That's a lot of time for new data.

If the M2 line does continue to head down (on the right side of the chart), then that may mark the top of the Bitcoin bull run.

šŸ”¹ Keep in mind the M2 vs BTC correlation is just one method of analyzing where we are in the bull run. I will continue to use things like cbbi.info and other metrics when we get closer to a top, to make a more thorough analysis. But as I see it, the M2 offers a great macro look into liquidity and I think it's a great tool to have in the analysis toolbox.

šŸ”¹ Let's see if this "MINI RALLY THAT FAILS?" area on the chart plays out or not. If it does, then it validates the 108 day offset. If BTC decides to blast off immediately instead, then it would validate a 70 day offset.

šŸ”¹ I am observing this fascinating correlation with you guys. Remember: it's just one metric of many we can be looking at, and no metric is 100%. But it's certainly fun to watch and seems to have some value.

šŸ”¹ LEARN MORE. If this subject of Global M2 correlation to BTC price movements is new to you, please watch this video with a full explainer. You will be fully educated by the end: x.com/ColinTCrypto/sā€¦

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