Nostr Web Client

What you say here is true, but for 1 thing:

"So, the amount of BTC miners have to sell to cover operation costs and satisfy shareholder profits actually increases."

With halving, miners' operational costs have not increased, there's no need to to sell more BTC.

You could mean that they will have to sell a bigger share of mined BTC, but the amount stays the same all else being equal. I don't see how this alone can have a detrimental effect on the price.

All the rest is cool, but you leave out

ETF buyers which take some warmup time to study, consider ther competition, etc , so I don't think it's there yet.

My guess is we'll see real institutional demend in a year or two.

But this thing is hard to overestimate.

hh 1y ago

Well yes, you are right to introduce that nuance about the miners. I was assuming they pretty much convert all BTC they mine to fiat. Are they actually keeping BTC in their treasury/reserves?

I also agree about demand in the mid term, and even more about the long term. That's why my comment was about the short term.

Talking about one to two years - we still have the Jan 1, 2025 date to mark on our calendars. That's when based on the new rules from the Bank for International Settlements central banks will be legally allowed to stack BTC (and likely ETH) up to a 2% of their reserves. We all know some states have already started to stack on the low, but when the central banks can do it in the open, now THAT will be wild.

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