Totally agree. The cryptography is baked into Bitcoin txns and it is just a special case. It still rests upon the same foundations and assumption that your key is not compromised. The extra layer of value packets adds nothing in terms of security.

It would be cool if we created dueling AI agents that proved this out in somehow empirically

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Im thinking you could vary the hardness of the cryptographic key and the amount of bitcoin needed and show that the security hardness is about the same after some threshold for the Red Team Agent trying to grind and guess