Not agreeing or disagreeing with you as this can get too speculative.

But I can speak reliably about how I plan and manage my set up.

I make sure I have a decent amount of inbound for my needs, which are quite predictable. I add a slight extra buffer just in case of course.

I either lease inbound from an LSP or open a channel myself and clear out sats to make room for inbound.

I see custodial wallets as a quick temporary fix that I can use as a short-term solution to reduce costs. But I'll eventually shift to self-custodial once the fee market looks more favourable.