How I view markets right now, super high level:

The 2010s were a deflation-reflation regime: we saw private deleveraging, austerity, China’s slowdown, peak globalisation, QE.

The 2020s so far are really the opposite: fiscal dominance, QT, remilitarisation, supply constraints, tight labour markets, reshoring, that sort of thing.

So now we kind of go back and forth between inflation and disinflation (goldilocks).

This regime can of course change any time, but only if the source of inflation flips from supply/fiscal to demand.

For that we need either 1) a demand shock (credit event, labour-market break, sovereign stress), or 2) forced fiscal tightening.

The biggest tail risk I see, outside of geopolitical risks spiraling, is a global sovereign debt scare, something like the eurozone crisis in 2011-12 but with global contagion across developed markets.

For Bitcoin, the current environment is still structurally favourable imo.

Fiscal dominance + unstable real yields + rising term premia help it (or rather hurt the dollar). BTC thrives when the credibility of sovereign balance sheets is questioned.

Liquidity remains constrained for now, but the end of Fed balance-sheet runoff improves liquidity conditions.

If the current regime breaks via a demand shock, BTC sells off sharply with other risk assets. But once policy makers respond (QE, rate cuts, fiscal), BTC recovers first and fastest too.

A sovereign-debt scare meanwhile would be chaotic in the short run but structurally bullish. The more investors doubt DM fiscal sustainability, the stronger the long-horizon bid for BTC becomes. Volatility up, long-term credibility of fiat down.

And if we stay in this regime, I expect BTC to crawl up. So all signs are green imo.