You are correct, kind of the general direction I'm going with these types of polls as well.

though you'd need to add relays that don't accept back dated events to ensure 100% authenticity

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This is going to happen. I can feel it.

I'll make it happen šŸ˜‚

Could https://opentimestamps.org/ help? A portion of the bets could go to fund the project if it helps.