There are perfectly reasonable things to point to as likely causes for the prior bull runs which coincided with the years following the halving that just don't go on in perpetuity. The two big ones are the halving itself (reducing in effect exponentially with each epoch) and the debt refinancing cycle, as the 3-5 year corporate debt cycle got largely synchronized in 2008 when rates dropped to zero (which impacted broader liquidity with a heartbeat averaging around those 4 year periods).

At this point 95% of coins have been issued, while institutional buying has turned new supply all but undetectable. Meanwhile the post COVID turbulence around interest rates has somewhat broken that side of things.

I'm not saying we're going up constantly here, so I don't like the supercycle narrative as it seems reductionist. But the four year cycle seems to draw a trend from too few data points, on top of those points being seen to have been caused by factors that don't apply.

Throw in the changes to the eSLR the other day and the idea of an impending bear market seems akin to flat Earth dogma.