Those around Trump know how and where #China can apply significant pressure. It’s now a dance and, my thinking, is that all of this right now is to layout pieces on the board that will lead to a massive “deal” in the second half of this year.
As for Taiwan, Beijing will do nothing and doesn’t need to. It is only a matter of time before Taiwan’s leaders see the world as it is rather than as they want it to be. And I’m fairly certain this opinion will not make me many friends.
Brilliant and thanks for your candor.
My background is debt markets and international finance.
I sense a massive dislocation brewing in 2H 2025 for “western” sov debt markets.
Requiring central bank intervention on a scale not even seen during Covid.
Massively inflationary (with a slight lag) by early 2026.
Gold and Bitcoin will springboard to previously unimaginable levels. And if Bitcoin manages to stay decentralised and secure, it likely de-monetises gold (and sov debt) by 2029-2033.
Faster than even most “maxis” are expecting.
Just my 2 cents. 😉
