The drunken man & his dog make it hard to invalidate the model, except to the upside.

S2F explains the effect of an absolutely fixed supply using a relatively fixed supply resource.

I got value from the model as an educational tool, but it probably made me too optimistic last cycle.

I've stopped trading bitcoin. Up & to the right over time is all I need to know. Stay humble & stack sats, is all I need to remember.