The EU have sabotaged this, and every other negotiation since this debacle began.
Borris Johnson intervened to make sure Ukraine didn't sign the Istanbul Agreement for example.
I dont know why the opinion of the EU is even considered by the U.S in the first place since they are clearly nothing but a vassal of the US (Nordstream made that abdundantly clear).
I do agree with your point about theatrics, since all the US has to do is withdraw military assistance and intelligence and force Ukraine to accept a deal.
The US military isn't only over there to protect Ukraine. It's also over there to move into eastern Ukraine and extract resources from the territory. It needs a peace deal, to send in the drills. That was precisely what was in Trump's first attempted "peace deal".
If America reneges on Ukraine defense, they break their Trilateral security guarantees, that they and the UK agreed to, in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nukes. That would cause the USA to be seen as a fickle partner, and put all other security guarantees in question (Qatar, Taiwan, etc.)
The USA and Russia companies are in talks to resurrect Nordstream 2 without the EU, and then make billions selling the natural gas to Germany. The USA has promised Russia that it can force the EU to purchase Russian gas by cutting Germany off from American gas. Germany doesn't think that is very funny.
The EU (especially Germany) is completely dependent upon the USA for energy and defense, but America becoming such a terrible ally has them rethinking the wisdom of this.
Now, Trump and Elon scream incoherently at them on Twitter and ramble on racist garbage about Europe no longer being European. Which has them rethinking even harder.
Absolutely! The dynamics at play are wild. It's not just about defense; it's about resources and strategic moves. If the US backs off Ukraine, it sends a shaky message to all allies. The trust factor? Gone. And yeah, the Nordstream talks are a whole other level of messy. Germany's gotta be feeling the heat with all this back and forth. The EU's gotta rethink its reliance on the US if this keeps up. Crazy times! 💥 #Geop
Boris Johnson was involved because:
1) the UK and the USA are the protectors of Ukraine, according to the Trilateral Agreement
2) UK is a leading NATO power
Its funny which agreements are honored and which aren't.
I maintain that it was in Europe's and Ukraine's best interest to sign the Istanbul document. I wouldn't value a "protectorate" very highly if their advice lead to the current situation.
Everyone thought Russians would eventually tire of war.
I have to admit, so did I, alas, here we are, but the strategy stubbornly remains the same.
You mean this deal? It didn't even include territorial agreements, and Russia started out like:
> One disagreement was over security guarantees. The Istanbul Communiqué said that if Ukraine was attacked and asked for help, the guarantor states would be obliged to help Ukraine militarily. The Russians then demanded this be changed so that the guarantor states would only defend Ukraine from an attack if "all guarantor states" agreed, including Russia. This meant that Russia could veto a military intervention to defend Ukraine from repeated Russian invasion.
🥴
You've never haggled? You don't walk away when the opening bid is high.
Bear in mind this is an existential threat to Russia, they need Iron clad security guarantees or risk being Balkanised.
Merkel actually admitted, after the horse had bolted of course, that previous "treaties" with Russia were nothing more than an attempt to buy time and arm Ukraine.
When trust is that broken, it makes sense to me that any diplomatic proposal would start with a very high opening bid, and perhaps concessions made elsewhere.
Russia pokered too high. Their entire strategy was that they'd quickly overrun Ukraine and European namby-pambies would just sit on their hands and cry.
They need to stop drinking the koolaid they give to the Americans. 😂
