Thought exercise: Estimate the average cost to mine 1 bitcoin in epoch 6.
Why do stocks trade at multiples of their p/e, but #bitcoin doesn’t trade anywhere near its future production cost?
Discussion
Because it is being accumulated, paper hands and over leveraged degens are being hunted.
If it’s only 10x more expensive to mine that it is today, given inflation, network growth, and block subsidy reduction which is a rather conservative estimate, that puts an Epoch 6 at $100k In energy to produce 1 bitcoin. Does this seem reasonable?
Yes. Next halving is the 100k halving, so we should be more or less around that (60k to 140k).
Next bull would hopefully see prices in excess of 200k before coming back down.
There is a whole lot of paper Bitcoin going around, and since the price is set by traders they can be used to leverage the market in a direction or another.
Accumulation phases are about creating liquidity where there isn’t really any available, so they create the conditions that will force people to sell.
IMO
One thing to also foresee is the relative drop in price of energies being used to mine Bitcoin. Rather than thinking in USD/kWh we should think in sats/kWh at the energy pump. The energy market is being disrupted in so many ways, who knows what it will look like in a couple of years.
That energy isn’t lost. Forever flowing through the network. Should make it $100k/#Bitcoin
Get as much as you can. Micro strategy buys wayy to much, and their headquarters are really close to the cia
Because it has no earnings? The "production" is intentionally "unproductive", like digging a hole in the ground and then filling it back in.