As we approach the close of the year, it's important to remember that the 10y/3m yield curve is still inverted.

It has been continuously inverted for over a year, which is the longest period of continuous inversion on record.

What this is likely warning is that not only is a #recession coming, but that it will likely last a long time.

It's always during the phase between when the central bank stops hiking rates and the start of the recession that it feels like a soft landing has been achieved.