I genuinely enjoy watching you grow over the years. Ironically, I think there was some immature youthful exuberance that made it more likely for you to yolo into bitcoin. Be can be too smart by half for bitcoin? Which is why I’m not a billionaire. I didn’t go in balls deep when I should have :)
Discussion
Haha I’m also not a billionaire, but the beauty of youth is knowing that if you fuck it all up you can make it back relatively quickly. It gives you permission to go for it.
Your time was definitely not billionaire creation time. But my time period was and I missed it.
I even called in to national public radio for an episode of Sound Money when my stack hit at enormous (to me at the time) $10,000…my question wasn’t interesting enough to warrant even a callback, much less being on air.
I **almost** unloaded it all at that point. But bitcoin crashed and I got lazy…so I never sold.
Bitcoin has a way of protecting you from your own stupidity!
I think even 10 bitcoin will be billionaire status one day
In nominal terms, perhaps. But in terms of current purchasing power, there are not enough goods and services on the market for 2.1 million billionaires on earth. That is roughly 1000x more billionaires than currently exist. But if average billionaire wealth is say $10B, then we are only 100x too high.
That said, I do think eventually bitcoin will usher in a new era of abundance that brings more goods and services to market…but I’m thinking that’s like maybe 2x, outside chance of 10x.
Most optimistic estimate along this line of reasoning, it’ll take 100 bitcoin to be a billionaire, but probably more like 500.
I think when bitcoin is at let’s say 10 million a coin a premier mansion in aspen or something will cost 100 million. Today they cost 25. So figure your purchasing power is 4x reduced what a billionaire’s is today.
This seems reasonable. Inflation isn’t the only price driver, but historically at about 2.5x to 3x influence this could be right. Price of Bitcoin right now with CPI removed across its history is around $30k. This indicates that the halving restrictions on supply and adoption demand response brought the price to $30k from $0. The other $75k of price is from inflation price impact. These three influencers wriggle about, so it’s hard to pin down precision but nostr:nprofile1qqsp4lsvwn3aw7zwh2f6tcl6249xa6cpj2x3yuu6azaysvncdqywxmgpzfmhxue69uhk7enxvd5xz6tw9ec82cspz4mhxue69uhk2er9dchxummnw3ezumrpdejqk2n55u ‘s point is spot on. Gather more than you think you’ll need.
This is the math I’m here for.
Yeah. No matter how you math it…we still early!