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>“To put the market’s extraordinary movements into perspective, home prices in Sydney are 25.4 per cent higher since the onset of Covid in early 2020.

>In Brisbane, they’ve surged 55 per cent on pre-pandemic levels, while in Adelaide they’re 57 per cent higher and in Perth they’re up 56 per cent.”

Considering that as a starting point, those forecasts are bleak.

Young people are going to be forced to leave which means foreign capital will be increasingly required for Boomer exit liquidity but the tax base will be fukt as these immigrants they’re piling on are net negative.

Highest entrenched inflation in the OECD plus lowest rental vacancy rate, second highest immigration, household incomes have reverted 13 years, with household debt second only to Norway.

People have been saying for ages the bubble will burst soon™️. I don’t know, I just know productive people won’t want to live here and wade through this mess which will mean a really sick two tier society and it won’t be the Australian any of us remember.

phil 1y ago

I can confirm that is about right for Adelaide price rises based on recent sales near me and the estimated value of my house now. Still a lot cheaper than those Sydney properties though. The properties on both sides of me are rentals and both recently have new tenants, I’m guessing because the previous ones couldn’t afford the rent increases.

I think a lot of people are already struggling without further increases and agreed that a lot of young people will leave. We’ve always lost a lot of young people to the eastern states from SA for better job opportunities but they will be forced overseas instead.

I’m not really sure of when this bubble will burst with the current immigration levels and even if there is a correction it may not go as low as it needs to go. The problem that worries me with moving somewhere else though is that it is hard to know if it will actually be “better”. There are so many issues in the world at the moment so you may just end up uprooting family etc to trade one set of issues for another..

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StackSats.IO 1y ago

“Better” when considering elsewhere is always relevant and depends on what you personally value.

Without doubt there are better places with regards to cost of living, significantly better. Then the question is whether you can earn money there or have sufficient savings and that will be a challenge for a lot of young Aussies as most lack skills and don’t speak foreign languages - relocating is a bit different to backpacking.

But there will be enough who can opt out and will do so. It doesn’t take much, a few hundred thousand, a couple percent of the population, that will be enough to wreck the economy.

Most Aussies have never faced real hardship though, and still cling to their nostalgic version of this country and have outdated views of other places so it will take more pressure and time for this to happen, but it will happen.