美国可能衰退？人们现在已经忘记了经济衰退，但这并不意味着它不会到来。这张图表显示了自1920年以来，倒挂与衰退之间的时间差。如今，美国已经连续511天处于衰退期，因此2024年下半年出现衰退的可能性仍然很大。系好安全带。People have now forgotten about a recession. But that doesn’t mean it’s not coming. This chart shows the time lag between an inversion and a recession since 1920. Today, we’re at +511 days, making a H2 2024 recession still very likely.