This is what the global bond market looks like, with more than half belonging to the US and China.
With regard to the public debts of these countries, it is important to note that the US is entering, or is already in, a debt spiral from which financiers and economists around the world cannot say how it will emerge. According to some of them, such as Greg Foss, for example, who has been trading bonds for more than 30 years, there is no way out, and it only means more debt, and printing money without cover, which will lead to more inflation.
China, on the other hand, is already getting a taste of the demographic crisis that has been talked about in recent years, with the first manifestation of it being the reporting of negative population growth in 2022. If this becomes a trend and the government does not take action, the question for China is how will it cope with the cost of 800 million pensioners and who will work to pay this bill? According to some analysts, future retirees are over 900 million.
Italy has had the fewest babies since statistics have been kept in 2022 and public debt is colossal relative to GDP.
In Japan, for yet another year, more adult diapers are sold than baby diapers.
In times like these, the best policy is for a country to have small or no deficits(almost impossible) and throwing all its energies into improving the demographic picture.
In Bulgaria the debt to GDP ratio is still healthy and this is a good prerequisite for developing the economy, but on the other hand we have been drowning in a demographic crisis for decades. The best way to understand this is to see that less than 50% of the money to pay pensions comes from pension funds, and the remaining deficit is financed with money from the contributions of working-age people and additional debt.
Meanwhile, the average age in sub-Saharan Africa is 19.7 years and its population is expected to grow to 4 billion by 2060.
