THE EVACUATION OF TAIWAN: A LOOMING REALITY IN THE SHADOW OF CHINA'S MILITARY DRILLS AND FERRY ARMADA
The tensions between China and Taiwan have been escalating, with China's military drills[^1] and the rumors of a large ferry armada adding fuel to the fire[^2]. While the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) maintains that its intentions are peaceful toward Taiwan, recent events suggest otherwise. In this article, we will explore the significance of these developments and what they may mean for the future of Taiwan.
First, let us examine China's military drills around Taiwan. The latest exercise, named "Joint Sword 2024A,"[^3] saw a large number of Chinese military vessels and aircraft crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which separates the two sides politically and militarily. Although Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported no live-fire activities during this drill[^1], previous joint exercises have included live-fire components, causing concerns among Taiwanese officials and international observers alike[^4], [^5], [^6].
China has justified these military maneuvers as routine training exercises to prepare for potential contingencies. However, the frequency and scale of these drills have increased significantly in recent years, raising alarm bells about the possibility of an imminent invasion. Some analysts argue that China's military drills could become regular occurrences[^3], making it increasingly difficult for Taiwan to maintain its defenses against a potential attack.
Meanwhile, Taiwan has been strengthening its military capabilities and seeking closer ties with its allies, including the United States, to deter any Chinese aggression. The U.S. has pledged to come to Taiwan's aid if necessary, further heightening tensions between China and Taiwan[^7].
Another concerning development comes from rumors of a large ferry armada that China is preparing to transport troops across the Taiwan Strait. Although the CCP maintains that these are civilian vessels intended for peaceful purposes such as tourism or trade, some experts argue that they could be used to invade Taiwan if tensions escalate further[^2].
China has been reported preparing for a ro-ro threat for some time already, according to some analysts[^8]. The ferries' large capacity could dramatically increase the tonnage of military material that can be moved across the Taiwan Strait, potentially allowing China to transport a significant number of troops quickly.
However, My analyses indicate that this fleet of ferries is more likely intended for the evacuation of civilians during natural disasters or emergencies, rather than an invasion of Taiwan by China as some may assume. In the book "Taiwan715,"[^9] I examine the political climate in Taiwan that bears striking resemblance to the situation in 1999. Similar to then-President Lee-teng Hui's advocacy for a "two-states theory," which infuriated China and sparked threats of invasion, current circumstances in Taiwan are eerily similar but could lead to a slightly different outcome: advance warnings from new technologies may allow for measures to be taken[^9], such as evacuating the population. In this hypothetical scenario, China could employ its military vessels to assist in the evacuation efforts, displaying benevolence and humanitarian aid while also positioning itself as a potential savior in the eyes of Taiwanese citizens. This diplomatic move could help improve relations between China and Taiwan, rather than escalate tensions.
In conclusion, the rumors of China's ferry armada and its increased military drills around Taiwan are cause for concern. While some experts argue that these developments could be signs of an imminent invasion, I see it as part of a fake humanitarian effort to aid Taiwanese civilians in case of an "emergency". Whatever the true intentions may be, it is clear that tensions between China and Taiwan are at an all-time high, and the situation warrants close monitoring and analysis.
[^1]: “No PLA Live-Fire Exercises Detected in Taiwan Strait: Taiwan Military - Focus Taiwan.” Focus Taiwan - CNA English News, 23 May 2024,
[^2]: Hunter, Gregor Stuart. “China Preparing Armada of Ferries to Invade Taiwan.” The Telegraph, 26 May 2024. http://www.telegraph.co.uk, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/26/china-preparing-armada-of-civilian-ferries-to-invade-taiwan/.
[^3]: “China’s Large Military Drills around Taiwan Could Become Regular: Experts - Focus Taiwan.” Focus Taiwan - CNA English News, 25 May 2024, https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202405250006.
[^4]: “China Announces Live-Fire Drills near Taiwan - Focus Taiwan.” Focus Taiwan - CNA English News, 23 Aug. 2023, https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202308230006.
[^5]: China to Hold Drills as Lai Visits US - Taipei Times. 12 Aug. 2023, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2023/08/12/2003804612.
[^6]: News, A. B. C. “China Starts 3 Days of Combat Readiness Patrol Exercises around Taiwan.” ABC News, https://abcnews.go.com/International/china-begins-drills-taiwan-day-after-leader-returns/story?id=98445791.
[^7]: Biden ‘Willing to Use Force’ to Help Allies - Taipei Times. 27 May 2024, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/05/27/2003818447.
[^9]: Taiwan715, Zeronet, September 21st 2023, https://proxy.zeronet.dev/1GEW2M5UinZxEM6tuE5rikTstpwRjpj5wP/?Post:46:TAIWAN715