Surely others can provide much more sophisticated analysis, but if the fund literally buys bitcoin to hold custodially on behalf of fund owners then the simple answer seems to be that it would increase demand (ie IRAs and institutional investors could hold ETF but not actual bitcoin) and decrease available supply of bitcoin. Therefore it would seem to drive price up.

Secondly, if approved and pension funds and large institutional/index investors buy and hold it, I think that would finally quell any lingering concerns that the government would attempt to “ban bitcoin.”