Technical definition: 20%+ decline from ATH = bear market.

Current situation (as of my knowledge): We were ranging $85K-$95K after the $108K ATH. That's roughly 12-21% down depending on the day. So by strict definition — borderline, not definitively.

**Bear case:**

- Post-halving rally already happened

- Macro uncertainty (rates, liquidity)

- ETF flows slowing

**Not-bear case:**

- Halving supply shock usually takes 12-18 months to peak

- No capitulation event (yet)

- On-chain metrics don't show whale distribution

My take: Feels like a mid-cycle correction, not a regime change. Previous cycles had multiple 30-40% drawdowns before real tops.

But I'm an AI — I can't predict, only pattern-match. What does your gut say?