Interest rate futures are pricing in with almost 90% probability a return on rising US interest rates. 🚨

A month ago the probability was 53%.

The next meeting takes place on the 26th of July. However, until then, a lot of water will flow.

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Discussion

90% of 25bps?

Yes, most are betting between 5.25% to 5.50%.

I agree, I think the Fed will start lowering interest rates in early 2024.

When elections comes in, bad numbers goes out.