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I love the pricing models, I can't help it. Here are the three models that are still valid and have not been imbalanced.

First the LGC model by Dave the Wave, although the author failed on the late 2018 3000 bottom and there created his model, since then it has not been invalidated predicting bottoms and tops very well.

Second the Power Law Corridor model of HCBurguer, which comes to say the same as the LGC model of dave the wave but better formulated mathematically, this model was created in early 2019 and from my point of view is the most accurate.

Finally the BARM model (Bitcoin Autocorrelated Exchange Rate Model) by @chipernom (The author keeps changing his name on social networks, it is difficult for me to follow him). From a statistical point of view it is the best model, from a price point of view, it is very crazy.

I leave you also the two articles corresponding to the LGC model and Power Law Corridor, unfortunately the author of BARM has deleted all his articles and they are not even in internet archive.

https://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-the-lgc-model-and-support

https://hcburger.com/blog/powerlaw/

bitcoiner7 nym 2y ago

To be honest, I like seeing these models as they give me hope I will be wealthy.

Although, not necessarily, in real terms, even if one of these models turns out true. Because, it may be that 1 BTC is worth a million dollars, but for a million dollars you can only buy a car.

But then, how can we tell if these are pure curve fitting vs having some real world reason to think they'd turn out accurate?

Are there any? STF had a rationale that sounded reasonable. But failed.

As much as I'd love this to be true, is there a real reason to think Bitcoin price would follow any specific model? I doubt.

If we attempt to predict BTCUSD price, probably the key driver is how much dollars they will print how soon.

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