So #[0] this reemergence of selling in treasuries since the start of the month, seems like it could pick-up pace into the coming quarter, what do you think happens from here?
Discussion
Well after this weekends Munich fiasco don’t expect any slack being picked up by the Chinese.
Smart money sells treasuries like this if expectation that yields are going much higher. Right now risk markets expect Fed to slow down then pivot this year.
Bonds tell a different story.
Sell ahead of rising yields, buy back when Fed is done.
I expect Fed to raise to at least 5.5% before a pause, with no reverse course this year. Inflation will remain elevated
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I agree with you but why has being risk on since the beginning of the year been so profitable. I am looking to exit but it keeps going up :)
Fed playbook: Get to 5.5%, hold, and wait and see.
Market: just over here front running the feds ultimate capitulation
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid. But also don’t fight the Fed. 2 axioms that seem to be in conflict currently.
Mostly a repricing of FED’s position on hikes. Wouldn’t interpret too much into it.
Hi guy, how can I post a picture?
