Replying to Avatar Thursday 5∞

Let's talk adoption because there's this idea of 200+ million bitcoiners which is both false and dangerous for the young padawns. As you can see the number of addresses richer than $1,000 is under 10M (~2M sats). If you factor in that most hodlers have their stack spread to many addresses, the true number of bitcoiners is probably less than 1M today (less than 0.02%). If so, where are the rest?

Well the rest are just using third parties, exchanges or similar. While their balance may display an impressive amount, the reality is that those are simply IOUs. They're Schrodinger's bitcoin, potentially worse. It is well-known that no keys equals no cheese, so why would one keep their sats in someone else's bag?

I say it's a mixture of poverty, hubris and greed. By poverty I mean the lack of knowledge, common sense and history lessons; by hubris the belief that some entities are too big to fail; by greed the intent of cashing into dollars once moon happens. If you think you're smart to bypass any of these, you're in fact a moron and you'll lose all your bitcoins on average because of rug pulls. It happened, it happens and it will happen until the lessons are learned. This is obviously not the case today. So buckle up!

You're probably thinking that you live in a nice area and, if God forbid something happens in the clown world, you'll be able to just relocate. On average, the ones who have more than $10,000 in savings, are doing so by investing in real-estate or gold. I say good luck in cashing in once the fall happens.

It's funny how people are so brainwashed into thinking it's better to save in something designed to go to zero than to save in bitcoin which fluctuates about 1% daily. The marshmallows test indicated since the '70 that the overwhelming majority simply doesn't have the patience to wait a bit for the reward. Of course, this is well-crafted conditioning. All masters prefer their slaves obedient.

Real-estate covers the inflation more or less but when the immigrants or worse will knock on your door for food, you'll lose probably half the value by cashing in rapidly. There are 1 billion of fuckers who have yet to understand the fact that there're are less than 21M bitcoins to opt out of the clown world. Don't even get me started with the gold.

There're 8+ billion souls now playing, but probably less than 1 billion have the means to understand bitcoin's proposition. In theory it's for everyone, but reality has shown that the poor simply don't care for it. It is what it is. I'll erect a church if real adoption ever passes 5.8%.

Plebs without much savings have to find a path to get non-IOU bitcoin. Here are some options:

1. Save up enough war-bucks to make a big enough purchase to warrant the transaction fees

2. Accumulate "IOU bitcoin" (and accept the counter-party risk) until you have enough to exchange it for real bitcoin

3. Accumulate an alternative, non-IOU Store of Value until they have enough to exchange it for real bitcoin. This is where silver can shine. Ironically, silver can also work as a non-IOU Medium of Exchange

#bitcoin

#silver

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It's bitcoin for those heading to 2140 and precious metals for the ones going to 1500s. 🐸

It's not bitcoin if they can't afford the transaction fees

Agreed. I don't see a problem in this tho. I like tennis, should Djokovic have to play my level?

I'm not saying it's a problem either. All I'm saying is that those people will have to find an alternative solution to store their value. Also, real bitcoin (non-IOU) is not a very good medium of exchange for small, everyday transactions due to transaction fees. For this, people will have to find an alternative or accept counter-party risk

I bet they'll use custodial LN before silver coins. Not sure how this is going to play out on a large scale. Probably fuck around and find out kind of tech. 😂

True. There is no "one size fits all." People will use a variety of assets and IOUs for spending and saving. The most useful with the least amount of risk will rise to the top