The Social Security Administration expects their reserves to run out in 2035.

That’s a different pile of money than most other government functions, and so without either tax increases or legislation that transfers other money to it, payments going out to retirees could actually be cut after that due to not enough income flowing in.

I’m not sure what they’ll do at that point since we don’t even know what things will look like then, but basically 2035 is the next station to see if the train keeps going or not.

This drawdown will represent “intergovernmental” public debt turning into public debt held by either the private sector, foreign sector, or central bank.