For those not on Twitter:

Event horizon... my sequence of events (just a guess):

1. Remove US debt ceiling ✅

2. Massive debt issuance ✅

3. Absorb much of debt issuance via T-bill issuance and absorption from the overnight reverse repo (ORR) market ✅

4. ORR is depleted sometime in 1H 2024

5. Treasury market shows increased instability (via high and rising MOVE index)

6. Treasury slows issuance

7. Fed implements mandatory increased bank reserve requirements to help absorb Treasury issuance

8. US Treasury debt issuance speeds up

9. Severe bond market instability as private sector liquidity has been fully tapped dry

10. Financial institutions start to fail in earnest; contagion risks heightened

11. Risk assets crumble with extreme volatility

12. New Fed liquidity patches initiated/revived, but with little effect

13. Bear market recession; proverbial "blood in the streets"

14. Fed declares massive #QE

15. Bottom in risk assets; #bitcoin soars to new highs by late 2024-early 2025