It's easy to be correct about things like bitcoin or the mRNA shots because so many people are bribed not to see what’s in front of their faces.

Much harder to be correct when predicting sports outcomes as the market is much smarter and less biased.

Possible edge IMO comes from observing the problem — Team X plays Team Y, considering it and then forgetting about it. Come back to it a couple days later. Often you will know what side you feel strongly about. (Provided you have sufficient experience picking games.)

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Discussion

Are you putting any futures in for the Super Bowl/CFP?

I got the Falcons at 38:1 (annoying because it was listed at 40:1 on the sheet, but someone else apparently had bet it down.).

I might grab some other ones, but none really jumped out at me as great values initially.