Stealing a bit from Dmitry Orlov here but the most rational behavior may likely be to treat the old system like a train and allow it to slow down so you can step off without having to tuck and roll or risk severe injury.

The more the centralized systems slow down and/or become ever more apparent total failures, the more people can feel safe stepping off.

I believe this is what most people are “waiting for” in the subconscious sense.

The adoption rate will depend highly on the rate the old system decelerates.