Replying to Avatar Dare Obasanjo

What if generative AI turns out to be an overhyped dud? I think that question depends on how you define success.

This article has a few examples including generating trillions in revenue or helping OpenAI justify its $29 billion valuation.

I think generative AI will be immensely transformative but unsure if it’ll be in the way VCs expect. Python & ML recommendation algorithms have been immensely transformative but can we attribute trillions in revenue to them?

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-if-generative-ai-turned-out

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nobody 2y ago

It kind of already is. It's neat to be sure. But there's no state, no reasoning, no understanding. I use it damn near every day to make all kinds of tasks easier. It certainly makes me more efficient and effective but maybe by 50% and not the "10x" that most people think of for transformative technology. Seeing how these things actually work tells me it's just not the "AI" that we're being hyped on and sold. It's the wrong tech for the real generalized AI that will utterly upend everything. It feels like an important "module" that general AI will rely on.

Having said that, we are so stupidly close I'm not sure we have to wait long. Ten years maybe more and we could see some truly mind bending things.

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