In the past there was such a thing as second bests. Now we live in a world with no second best. Bitcoin’s supieriority was not well understood in all its history. Any future price predictions based on price levels during a time when Bitcoin was poorly understood by 99%+ of ppl is not wise imho.
$4M is what one would expect if they expected past to predict future. You do this by linearizing bitcoin price time curve by taking log of price and log of time…then draw that straight line a little longer and undo the logs. I don’t think calling this price way too low to be reasonable. It’s literally extrapolating linearly.
https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/
If your investment hypothesis relies upon unprecedented bitcoin price rise, you might consider your risk tolerance because I doubt you’ll do better than the past. And if you want to extrapolate, I’d encourage you to transform data to allow you to do a linear extrapolation rather than following some other curve.
Discussion
Very true. This is exactly my point. My calculations of fair present value $700K-1.4M would be what one would expect if everyone accepted Bitcoin’s future price equaling model predicted price…I’m answering the question would be the max they’d be willing to pay today for bitcoin? This would make bitcoin price break the model and future forecasts couldn’t use the model anymore.