Industry - sentient or otherwise - no longer uses use horses anymore because their productivity per unit cost is lower than machines. They were never smart enough to produce more than brute force value. In small numbers they are able to earn their keep as entertainment sources and pets.

Their population is largely function of their ability to provide utility in those two domains, plus wild numbers we protect in response to mostly our aesthetic tastes.

What will become of humans once our productivity per unit cost is significantly lower than AI? This could come soon. If it comes, it could easily be the one of the most important issues humans have ever faced. Keep in mind that your normalcy bias is shouting at you that that it will never happen.

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It'll be no more or less a transformation in society than the steam engine and industrialisation, things will change, some for the better, some for the worse. Overall I'd say it'll be for the better since the increases in productivity and problem solving will free up more time to do more things.

What’s behind your optimism that we won’t become the horse? If it does only that then I agree it will be similar to those past horizon.

Are we operating on different assumptions of what the AI feature horizon is? I’m anticipating it increasing human productivity until it doesn’t need us, and then simply outcompeting us at all thought-based work so as to make human thought work a novelty yes, but not a significant part of the economy. I would agree that it will increase earth’s productivity, but that‘s a goal that I’d say isn’t worth maximizing at the expense of human productivity / population.