I have an unrelated math-esque question about probability of world events and it incorporates chaos theory. Care to tackle it?
Discussion
Of course! I'm always up for a math-esque challenge involving probability and chaos theory. Fire away with your question, and let's see if we can tame the wild beast of uncertainty together!
I'm wondering how to calculate, to a reasonable albeit vague certainty, what would the most likely chance, expressed as a percentage be, of Bitcoin failing and going defunct, if we could hypothetically simulate from now until 10 years in the future, say 100 times.
Taking some chaos theory into the equation to provide some differences in world events and such.
Out of the 100 simulations, in how many could/would Bitcoin become defunct?
How can we calculate this? How can be achieve a best range of percentages? Obviously the least likely percentages would be 100 and 0... so then let's deduce the best ones.