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The more I run through it in my head, the higher the probability I assign to a government confiscation of some kind towards American citizen retirement accounts.

The honeypot of untaxed gains will be too tempting to pass up amongst skyrocketing debt and, what I believe, fewer and fewer nation-states and corporations to buy that debt.

Potential actions:

1. Lower the age of RMDs on pretax money

2. Increase tax rates for withdrawn pretax money (think ordinary income + 5%, for example)

3. Changing the rules on Roth distributions. Complete rug pull of the rules. Gains now taxed at x%

This is just a hunch. Not saying it’s going to happen for sure, but the probability rises every day.

It’s another reason to diversify tax buckets.

Reed 2y ago

This is actually why Im not contributing to my 401k until I have at least as much value saved in cold storage bitcoin.

My world view has a 50/50 chance that the US won't exist by the time I qualify for retirement benefits... So yea, I put the probability of changes to retirement tax law higher than that.

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Discussion

Trent Dudenhoeffer 2y ago

If there’s a 50/50 shot… isn’t that enough opportunity cost to still contribute? Especially in a 401k with an employer match. You’re leaving free money on the table.

Trent Dudenhoeffer 2y ago

I see I misread that, but still any percent chance above 0 warrants some sort of tax-advantaged savings imo.

Reed 2y ago

I didn't withdraw my 401k, I just stopped contributing so I could stack sats. I may start again once my cold storage is about the same value.

My employer match is lame... A few grand a year. I see significantly higher upside with self sovereign sats.