Nostr Web Client

//The Wire//2300Z January 5, 2026//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: USA TAKES CONTROL OF VENEZUELA, EFFORTS TO EMPLACE TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT CONTINUE. SOMALI FRAUD SCANDAL SPREADS NATIONWIDE. ECOTERRORISTS SET FIRE TO BRIDGE IN BERLIN RESULTING IN ELECTRICAL BLACKOUTS.//

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Germany: Over the weekend insurgents conducted a sabotage operation in Berlin, which targeted electrical infrastructure. The far-left terrorist group Vulkangruppe claimed credit for the attack that took the form of arson attacks on electrical pylons carrying power to much of southwest Berlin. The main attack took the form of arsonists setting fire to a bridge carrying electrical cables across the canal to the west of the power plant in Lichterfelde.

Analyst Comment: This attack was coordinated and timed to coincide with a cold snap that brought extremely cold weather throughout the region. The insurgents were trying to cause as much harm as possible, so they conducted the attack at a time when they knew that cold-weather casualties would be maximized. Local officials have stated that it might be as late as Thursday before repairs can be fully completed, due to the severity of the attack.

-HomeFront-

Minnesota: The Somali Fraud saga continues as dozens of independent investigations and lines of analytical effort result in even more fraud coming to light by the hour. This afternoon, Governor Tim Walz made the announcement that he is dropping out of the gubernatorial race due to the scandal.

Analyst Comment: Minnesota is no longer the only state in which major investigative efforts are underway. After the initial story broke in Minneapolis, others started looking around in their areas, only to find exactly the same kind of fraud...wholesale theft of taxpayer money, laundered through nonexistent daycares and other welfare programs. There are currently reports of widespread Somali fraud in Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Idaho, Ohio, and Maine. Additional fraud activities are also being investigated in most other states, not just within the Somali community.

Ohio: Overnight a security incident was reported at the home of VP Vance. One assailant, who has been identified as William DeFoor, was able to get close enough to Vance's residence to break one of the exterior windows with a hammer, before being detained and arrested.

Analyst Comment: Considering the extreme threats to key leaders within in the US at this time, this reaction was probably expected. However, this incident was too close for comfort. One lunatic with a hammer getting this close proves that a terrorist with an S-Vest could get just as close, and the outcome would be very different.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Venezuela, the situation right now is still very dynamic. Though the American operation to capture Maduro was a one-time mission, the situation has not over yet. Maduro is out of the fight, but right now the United States has, in effect, taken control of Venezuela.

Maduro's allies, Generals, and decades of infrastructure (and criminal enterprise) does not simply evaporate overnight, and the removal of the head of the snake doesn't mean that the body doesn't also exist. In many ways it's business as usual in Venezuela, and in other ways significant changes are underway. President Trump has stated that the short term goal is to run Venezuela for a time, installing a puppet government until a transition to a more stable government can take place. Whether or not this will happen can be debated, but this is the plan for now.

Regarding Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricant (POL) facilities, President Trump stated that American oil companies will be running Venezuela's oil industry (and exporting that oil back to the United States).

Concerning additional strikes, President Trump stated that a wider conflict may be necessary, but has alluded to the raid to snatch Maduro being a one-and-done operation for now. American presence in the region is still staggering, as it has been for many months, so if things pop off domestically in Venezuela (or if operations expand to other South American nations), the United States has enough resources in theater to handle any resistance groups that may pop up now that a very substantial destabilization operation has reached it's zenith in Venezuela.

On that front, the story of Maduro's generals (and his government at large) is less clear. Obviously, his opposition is working to set up shop to control all domestic agencies and organziations throughout the nation. On the military front, the situation varies; most regular forces (such as the uniformed infantry, marines, etc.) have either fled or are carrying on as usual, so it's a mixed bag. Right now, it is only the irregular forces which have shown concern that their boss was given an all-expenses-paid red eye flight to New York. The Colectivos, the armed civilian militias which mostly served as Maduro's strongarm in the cities, have shown the most loyalty to their departed leader, and have activated themselves throughout Caracas to kidnap/kill anybody who they think were informants for the operation, but so far these efforts have been confined to roving bands of thugs rather than any sort of serious uprising.

The more organized paramilitary organizations haven't been interested in any more serious uprising efforts either, however these will be the groups to keep an eye on if things get squirrely over the next few months. The Bolivarian National Militia is a step above the street thugs of the Colectivos because they have more training and slightly more organization than unorganized gangs, but their leadership appears to be engaging in the timeless third-world tradition of absconding with duffel bags full of cash the very moment their boss gets yanked. The Special Action Forces (FAES, also generally known as the secret police kill squads) also haven't been heard from in a while. Speculating a bit, it would make sense for many FAES members to quietly disappear into the night...these guys were responsible for many brutal killings and doing Maduro's dirty work, so it's very likely they would be hanged at some point now that Maduro is gone.

Varying stories have been reported at the higher ranks of the more traditionally-uniformed military services in Venezuela...most Generals have stayed in power for now and are simply trying to figure out what to do next. Clearly, the American CIA has a very large presence in Venezuela, and have already lined up Maduro's successors. Amongst the Venezuelans, they are also probably trying to figure out which of them the CIA has picked to still have a job in a week's time, and which of them is due a black bag over the head. In South America, a LinkedIn rejection email might arrive in an unmarked van, so the leadership which hasn't already fled is probably waiting to see how all of this works out. Venezuela will have to be run by Venezuelans, so many probably think that there will always be a deal to be made.

It's Monday, Venezuela just started a whole new week. And it's very likely that this week will be filled with a lot of changes down south. Most people within the US government who would have had the real-world experience of toppling a South American nation has either died or retired by now, so only time will tell if this traditional American pastime will work out in the long run.

Reply to this note

Discussion