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I disagree, but I am glad of diversity of opinion. At least someone will survive.

those who survive will be those who anticipated the kind of changes that would unfold

i'm sure if you want to DYOR regarding the major geomagnetic disaster that is certainly coming in the next few decades you'll agree that there is something going on when people are seeing auroras in arizona from such small CMEs as we had in may, and has happened repeatedly

the obvious answer to the question of how such a big charge of energy lit up the upper atmosphere from a comparatively small eruption should obviously be that the normal shielding mechanism is in the process of declining due to a polarity shift

a lot of people disagreed with noah building a giant boat in the middle of the thracian plain, which is where i'm pretty sure he was, but how did that work out?

and it would take me a little while to dig up the references but concurrently in other parts of the world at around the same time there was numerous stories of strange people showing up and giving warnings and instructions how to survive

the difference then to now is that we are again in a similar position as those who brought the warnings to the people all over the world, we have the technology and science to understand what is going on and make useful predictions about what to expect

if you read about the "evil sun" stories and people being burnt alive by airbursts from impactors formed subsequent to the massive solar event that caused the Flood you will notice the common thread is that our normal protection from solar energy was basically gone and this led to all kinds of things including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wild fires, storms, high levels of cloud cover in general, sudden decline in temperatures, failure fo crops

there has been minor events also since then, a notable one was recorded on a runestone discovered recently that discusses the events that unfolded around 500-700AD involving declining temperatures, increased rain, and epidemics that wiped out most of the population

we got such things coming up in the near future and if you want to pretend that the evidence does not point to the idea that we are going to lose the use of electrical technology sometime in the next 20 years in a big way, then, ok, whatever, but i'm just here to tell you that it's coming

i will also mention it's possible there will be an evacuation operation, as this was promised in numerous books of the Bible and apocrypha

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Daniel Wigton 1y ago

It isn't a matter of pretending. It is a matter of alternative interpretation driven by a different set of operating assumptions. I wouldn't presume to belittle your reasoning, but neither do I believe it to be correct.

I have to operate based my own reasoning. My understanding of the world tells me that while the situation you describe is not impossible, it is improbable to the point where it would be imprudent for me to allocate resources to defending against it.

I do agree that a magnetic reversal is inevitable, but I don't know on what time scale. It could be 20 years it could be 20,000 years. It is a rare enough thing that I have to question any higher precision claims.

But even if one does occur in my lifetime I am not worried for two reasons.

The first is that physics will still work. This means electronics will work as long as the operating environment relatively benign. I have reason to believe that it won't be within a few orders of magnitude of our current environment.

The role of the magnetic field in defending the surface of the earth is overstated. It does slow the stripping of the atmosphere by the solar wind, but that is a process that takes billions of years. Look at Mars, with no magnetic field and a much weaker gravitational field, it still holds on to a tenuous atmosphere.

It is the atmosphere itself that shields us from solar radiation. That is what those aurora are, charge particles slamming into the atmosphere instead of into the surface.

Electronics are sensitive to solar events due to induced current, but I don't think that is materially altered by the Earth's magnetic field. Any event large enough to induce damaging currents would simply overwhelm our meager field.

But that is mainly a problem for long baseline conductors. Your home electronics will probably be fine. The grid, maybe not so much. So it may be prudent to get your own generator or solar panels.

My other reason for not worrying, is that the absolute worst that can happen is that my family and I are caught woefully unprepared and die and go to heaven. That is no excuse to be unprepared for a likely situation, but I still need not fear it.

The thing is, that there are a near infinite set of possible catastrophes that I have no control over. Wars, volcanoes, tornados, lightning strikes, evil governments, angry neighbors, sickness etc. all of it could wipe out my family without warning. I can be prudent to prepare for high-frequency events, but in the end I am 100% reliant on the mercy of God.

ᴛʜᴇ ᴅᴇᴀᴛʜ ᴏꜰ ᴍʟᴇᴋᴜ 1y ago

it is a routine thing that already happened several times last year when there was auroras, there was huge problems with internet services losing connectivity and power outages and systems going down as a result, the CMEs that caused these geomagnetic storms were trivially small

this solar cycle, we are in the peak, and likely we will have at least a couple more big light shows like last may in the next two years, and then all will be quiet for another 9-10 years when the solar max hits again

what will happen is that when a "killshot" sized blast hits us and the magnetic shield is weak enough, electrical distribution systems will literally catch fire (this happened in 1859 to the nascent telegraph network), basically every device with an antenna will have the radio fused and many of the power circuits and wiring in general will be overloaded with current and probably a lot of things will even catch fire

if this happens, it will shut down almost all industry for the time it takes to repair all the burned out devices, and if this destroys every electrical device on at least the sun-facing side where the blast comes from, it's gonna put a pretty big ding in everyone's year, or several years, because the repairs will likely take months, and just consider that for the most part, doing those repairs requires functioning electrical devices, and you'll also have the entire transport infrastructure down because all electrical vehicles will be toast and even most gas and diesel burning engines won't work because they are controlled by computers and don't work at all without the computer to regulate ignition timing, valves, and so on and so forth

the other reason why i care about this is i already am aware of the fact that EMF has a negative effect on our bodies by disrupting timing signals than are normally coming from the resonances of the earth's atmosphere, anyway, and i want to reduce my exposure to all forms of EMF, i have earthing mats and try to keep electrical devices away from my sleeping area

there is no question that:

a) the geomagnetic storm effect of solar events are increasing rapidly

b) the magnetic poles of the earth have been moving extremely rapidly for the last 25 years, suggesting something is disrupting the field

c) the geological evidence of cyclic past magnetic pole shifts have happened pretty much like clockwork every 6000 years with extra nasty events every 12000 years, relating to the phase of the cycle, obviously, 90 degree rotation roughly every 6000 years, this is the Yuga Cycle that the hindus talk about, and is the time that it takes for our solar system to make one orbit of the galaxy

d) the size of the solar event that caused the Carrington Event in 1859 is now known to happen roughly on a 100-150 year cycle and we are now coming well past due for another one to happen, and such an event based on the same power of the solar eruption compared to the magnitude of effects of much smaller eruptions measured in the last 30 years suggests that such an event has a very high chance of completely shutting down modern technological industry for probably years, and the number of people who will die of cold and starvation and in the associated weather, volcanic and seismic events that go along with these geomagnetic storms is going to be epic

there is plenty of evidence to support all of those assertions and the prospects are very high either in 10 years or 20 years from now that we are going to have such an event happen and only those who are prepared for it will survive

there was a particularly bad event 72000 years ago that literaly killed all but 5000 humans, and yes, by the way, you are Christian so you know about the Flood, well, that is the level of destruction we are talking about, and yes, you may well be fine because the books record a promise from God to not let this happen again, or maybe more exactly, to evacuate the righteous prior to the next event

but i don't think that anything in this life should be taken for granted and substantial liability falls on us to do the work we are called to do

Daniel Wigton 1y ago

A few notes. Carrington type events are random. So while we are "closer" to the next event, it is no more likely in the next 150 years as it was in the past 150 years. We always have a 1/150 chance of an event per year regardless of the number of preceding years.

The solar system takes 225 million years to orbit the galaxy.

The magnetic flux of a Carrington event amounts to a few volts per meter. Disasterous for the grid. Manageable for cars and homes, in the noise for electronics.

You'll see data loss, but the hardware will be fine. Consumer electronics are regularly subjected to 50,000 volts in esd testing.

Daniel Wigton 1y ago

Correction. I was wrong about ESD testing voltage. It is 15,000 volts, not 50,000.