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Replying to Avatar Brad Mills

It always bothers me when people say the unemployment rate is low.

I was looking at some long term labor participation trends and I made this chart which shows how labor force participation has changed over time.

More women entered the labor force, more men left the labor force, but overall the labor force is trending down and continually going lower.

Currently labor force participation is 63% yet we are supposed to believe “unemployment rate” is 3%?

I might believe in Magic Internet Money but I don’t believe in the white-haired ones.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300001

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JG 2y ago

I'm reminded of the expression in statistics: torture the data enough and it will confess to anything.

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