As of June 12, 2025, there is no definitive evidence from available sources confirming that Israel has begun a multi-day air assault on Tehran. However, I can address the broader context of President Donald Trump's influence on Iran's nuclear program and the associated tensions involving Israel, based on the most recent and reliable information available. Below is an expanded analysis of Trump’s influence on Iran’s nuclear progress and the dynamics with Israel, incorporating relevant context and addressing the hypothetical scenario of an Israeli air assault.
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### Trump’s Influence on Iran’s Nuclear Program
Donald Trump’s policies toward Iran, particularly during his first term (2017–2021) and his second term (beginning January 2025), have significantly shaped Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the regional security landscape. His approach has oscillated between aggressive rhetoric, economic pressure, and diplomatic overtures, influencing Iran’s nuclear progress and the strategic calculus of both Iran and Israel.
1. **Withdrawal from the JCPOA (2018)**:
- In 2018, during his first term, Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a 2015 agreement between Iran and world powers (including the U.S., UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China) designed to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump criticized the deal as "the worst deal ever," arguing it was too lenient and failed to address Iran’s ballistic missile program or regional influence.
- Following the U.S. withdrawal, Iran gradually abandoned its JCPOA commitments, resuming uranium enrichment at higher levels. By 2025, Iran has enriched uranium to 60% purity, close to the 90% needed for a nuclear weapon, and is reportedly one to two weeks away from having enough material for a nuclear bomb, a significant reduction from the JCPOA’s 12-month breakout time.
- This escalation in Iran’s nuclear capabilities is a direct consequence of Trump’s "maximum pressure" campaign, which reimposed sweeping sanctions, crippled Iran’s economy, and pushed Tehran to advance its nuclear program as a bargaining chip or deterrent.
2. **Maximum Pressure Campaign**:
- Trump’s strategy relied on economic sanctions to force Iran to negotiate a new deal on his terms, which included a complete halt to uranium enrichment, dismantling nuclear facilities, and ending support for regional proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis.
- The sanctions devastated Iran’s economy, causing soaring inflation and a plummeting currency, which increased internal pressure on the Iranian regime. However, they also hardened Iran’s stance, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejecting direct negotiations under military threats and viewing enrichment as a non-negotiable right for civilian purposes.
- Iran’s weakened regional position—due to the decimation of its proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas) and the fall of Syria’s Assad regime—has made it more vulnerable, potentially incentivizing nuclear advancement as a means of deterrence against Israel and the U.S.
3. **Diplomatic Efforts in 2025**:
- In his second term, Trump has shifted toward diplomacy to avoid military conflict, engaging in indirect talks mediated by Oman. These negotiations, involving U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, aim to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
- A significant development is Trump’s reported concession allowing Iran to continue low-level uranium enrichment for civilian purposes, a departure from his earlier demand for zero enrichment. This shift has sparked hope for a deal but also tension with Israel, which insists on complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
- However, progress has been slow. Iran rejected a U.S. proposal in June 2025 as a “non-starter” for not addressing Tehran’s demand for immediate sanctions relief and recognition of its enrichment rights. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) also declared Iran non-compliant with nonproliferation obligations, escalating tensions.
4. **Threats of Military Action**:
- Trump has consistently warned of severe military consequences if Iran does not agree to a deal, stating in March 2025, “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.”
- He has also suggested that Israel would lead any military strike, with U.S. support, if Iran continues its nuclear advancements. This rhetoric has heightened regional tensions, with Iran threatening retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases and Israeli nuclear sites.
- Despite these threats, Trump has expressed a preference for diplomacy, citing the desire to avoid a broader Middle East war and allow Iran to become a “great country” without nuclear weapons.
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### Israel’s Perspective and Potential for an Air Assault
Israel views Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat and has repeatedly advocated for military action to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s position has often clashed with Trump’s diplomatic efforts, creating a complex dynamic.
1. **Israeli Military Preparations**:
- Israel has developed plans for strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including a proposed joint commando and airstrike operation in May 2025, which required U.S. support. Trump blocked this plan, prioritizing negotiations, but Israel continued to prepare for a potential solo strike.
- U.S. intelligence suggests Israel could execute a strike within seven hours of Netanyahu’s order, potentially without U.S. coordination, raising concerns in Washington about derailing nuclear talks.
- A senior Israeli official indicated to the Wall Street Journal that a strike could occur as early as June 15, 2025, unless Iran halts production of nuclear material. However, no sources confirm that such an assault began on June 12, 2025, as your query suggests.
2. **Strategic Context**:
- Israel’s confidence stems from Iran’s weakened military position. Israeli strikes in 2024 decimated Hezbollah, Iran’s key proxy, and destroyed Iranian air defenses and missile production facilities. The fall of Syria’s Assad regime further isolated Iran, reducing its ability to retaliate effectively.
- Netanyahu’s insistence on military action reflects distrust in diplomatic solutions, particularly any deal allowing Iran to retain enrichment capabilities. He has cited Libya’s 2003 nuclear dismantlement as a model, a precedent Iran is unlikely to accept.
- Iran’s threats to target Israeli nuclear sites in retaliation, backed by intelligence on Israel’s facilities, add to the risk of escalation.
3. **Hypothetical Air Assault on Tehran**:
- If Israel were to launch a multi-day air assault on Tehran, as your query posits, it would likely target nuclear facilities like Natanz, Fordow, or Arak, rather than civilian areas in the capital. Such an operation would require significant planning, as Iran’s nuclear sites are heavily fortified and dispersed, with some buried underground, necessitating bunker-buster bombs that Israel’s air force may lack without U.S. support.
- The consequences would be severe. Iran has threatened to strike U.S. bases and Israeli targets, potentially overwhelming Israel’s air defenses with ballistic missiles. The Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has signaled readiness to respond decisively, and Iran’s recent test of a missile with a two-ton warhead underscores its retaliatory capacity.
- Such an assault could derail U.S.-Iran talks, trigger a broader regional conflict, and spike oil prices due to Middle East instability. Arab states like Egypt and Gulf nations fear the economic and social fallout of such a war.
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### Trump’s Role in Balancing Diplomacy and Escalation
Trump’s influence has been a double-edged sword:
- **Escalatory Pressure**: His withdrawal from the JCPOA and sanctions regime accelerated Iran’s nuclear progress, bringing it closer to a weapon than at any point since 2015. His threats of bombing have kept military options on the table, aligning with Israel’s hawkish stance but risking escalation.
- **Diplomatic Restraint**: In 2025, Trump’s push for negotiations, including concessions on low-level enrichment, reflects a desire to avoid war. His blocking of Israel’s planned May 2025 strike and warnings against unilateral action demonstrate efforts to restrain Netanyahu while maintaining pressure on Iran.
- **Tensions with Israel**: Trump’s diplomatic approach has strained relations with Netanyahu, who continues to press for military action. Reports of a heated phone call in May 2025 highlight this rift, with Trump insisting on a diplomatic solution.
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### Current Status and Speculation
As of June 12, 2025, U.S.-Iran talks are at a critical juncture, with a sixth round scheduled for June 15 in Oman. Iran’s rejection of direct negotiations and the IAEA’s non-compliance finding have heightened tensions, but no confirmed reports indicate an Israeli air assault on Tehran has begun.
If an Israeli strike were underway, it would mark a significant escalation, likely prompted by Iran’s refusal to halt enrichment or by Netanyahu’s distrust of Trump’s diplomatic efforts. Such an action would risk undermining Trump’s foreign policy goal of securing a deal and could lead to a “massive conflict,” as Trump himself warned.
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### Conclusion
Trump’s influence on Iran’s nuclear program has been profound, driving Iran closer to a nuclear weapon through sanctions and JCPOA withdrawal while simultaneously seeking a diplomatic resolution in 2025. His efforts to restrain Israel’s military ambitions have so far prevented strikes, but Netanyahu’s preparations and Iran’s defiance keep the region on edge. While no evidence confirms an Israeli air assault on Tehran as of June 12, 2025, the situation remains volatile, with the outcome of upcoming talks critical to avoiding war.
If you have specific details or sources suggesting an ongoing Israeli assault, please provide them, and I can tailor the response further. Alternatively, I can search for real-time updates if you’d like. Would you like me to do so or clarify any other aspect of this scenario?