Polymarket is usually a good signal, no?
I wonder why the odds are still sitting at 30%
30% is a healthy possibility, but the noise makes it seem like this should be way higher. > 60%
Discussion
I still think back to December 2023 when Bitwise polled Financial Advisors asking if/when BTC ETFs would be approved. 60% believed the ETFs would happen in 2025 or later.
They launched one month later. Same vibes for SBR.
Very interesting. Was a similar poll completed for the SBR as well?
For what it is worth, if I read it correctly, then Kalshi puts the odds at 61% that
“If the White House creates a National Bitcoin Reserve (a la the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) before Jan 1, 2026, either through direct executive action or by signing a bill into law, then the market resolves to Yes.”