Replying to Avatar OostLog

My main theory on BTC price:

- it moves with Fed balance sheet / liquidity, always has

- we were never supposed to have a 2023-25 bull market into QT

- the SVB spike which was quickly unwound set in motion a price pump, but was a false start

- ETF and strategic Bitcoin reserve headlines kept it going

- we’re now - as many are calling a bear market - heading into the conditions where BTC historically actually pumps
Avatar
Telluride 0mo ago

Strange times ahead.

Global war in Europe and the coming AI bubble will have potential to pound us into the 50s short term.

Long term, no worries.

I like your scenario better 🧡👊🏻🍻

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

Avatar
OostLog 0mo ago

True, there’s always the risk of a March 2020 type of wick.

But if you blink and miss a few weeks, price will have basically remained unchanged before embarking on a massive pump.

War and bubbles blowing up will mean the money printer will go into overdrive an we’ve just shifted from P into D.

We might both be right 🤝🤝