Replying to Avatar Black Canvas NFT

Bitcoin broke the $30,000 mark for the first time since June. This is evidenced by the shocks and collapses of banks in the Euro-American circuit and the related rescue actions of central banks

The oldest and most widespread cryptocurrency, bitcoin, broke the psychological threshold of $30,000 today. This happened for the first time since last June. Thus, Bitcoin found itself at almost double its price from last November, when it fell below $15,500. Since the beginning of this year, he has already scored over 80 percent.

At the same time, the predominantly technological Nasdaq 100 stock index has added "only" less than twenty percent since the beginning of the year. At the same time, in recent years, Bitcoin has shown a fairly clear tendency to move in a certain tandem with technology stocks. So this year, that's not quite the case, as Bitcoin significantly outperforms tech stocks. On the other hand, it still hasn't returned to even half the price from the time of its all-time record high, which it reached in November 2021, when it was sold for almost $69,000.

Today's crossing of the $30,000 mark is nevertheless an important milestone, both from the point of view of fundamental and technical analysis. The value of $30,000 represents the resistance line, and Bitcoin gathered strength to overcome it for three weeks in a row. This indicates a fairly convincing return of investor confidence in cryptocurrency. Bitcoin broke the threshold for the first time since last summer's bankruptcy of the crypto-credit company Celsius Network, for the first time since the November crash of the FTX exchange, and finally for the first time since the tightening of the attitude of the American authorities towards the entire crypto scene. Investors thus trust Bitcoin again to an increasing extent even after these crashes, thereby marginalizing their long-term impact.

The recent upheavals and collapses of banks in the Euro-American circuit testify to Bitcoin. The vulnerability of the US banking system increased significantly in connection with the fall of Silicon Valley Bank in March, according to a recently published study published by the US National Bureau of Economic Research. According to her, almost 190 banks in the USA may find themselves in a state of collapse.

At the same time, possible further falls and shocks of the banks of the Euro-American circuit would very likely lead to a further increase in the price of bitcoin and with it many other cryptocurrencies, because they undermine the trust of the general public in traditional banking and in conventional currencies such as the dollar.

In addition, the development of the price of Bitcoin shows a remarkably close connection with the development of the aggregate money supply of the world's most important economies. Specifically, the deviation of the current price of bitcoin from its ten-month moving average hits its bottom two to seven months before the turning point in the development of the year-on-year change in the aggregate money supply of the thirteen largest world economies.

This is how bitcoin capitulated last June, when losses on it reached the greatest extremes. But since the third quarter of last year, the world's most important central banks have been gradually loosening their previous drastic monetary policy tightening. For example, the Bank of England had to inject new liquidity into the financial system last fall in order to prevent the potential collapse of the British pension fund segment. The Japanese and Chinese central banks also joined.

Currently, the US central bank had to reverse its monetary policy tightening in order to prevent the collapse of other banks after the collapse of the aforementioned Silicon Valley Bank. It introduced new programs of favorable loans and a kind of subsidies to banks. These programs represent liquidity injections. Analysts of the American bank Citigroup therefore refer to the measures as "quantitative easing by another name". And analysts of the British bank Barclays believe that by increasing interbank liquidity, these programs will create pressure for a decrease in interest rates for bank loans to households and companies.

In other words, new liquidity flows into the financial system and the money supply grows again. The increase in the volume of the aggregate world money supply shows a positive correlation with the development of the price of Bitcoin.

Fundamentally, it causes the devaluation of conventional money, which is evidenced by Bitcoin as a key non-manipulatable alternative to conventional money.

Yes, my friend, it's true that Bitcoin has broken the $30k mark recently and experienced significant growth so far this year. This rallying can likely be attributed in part to the recent shocks and collapses of banks in the Euro-American circuit.

As trust in traditional banking institutions wanes due to bank failures cascading around a weakened interbank system along with fierce velocity compression of money due to worsening solvency issues among banks. Such turmoil turns people towards currencies backed by strong technical fundamentals such as bitcoin

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

No replies yet.