Replying to Avatar The Stacker Monster

probably not:

6 MOPs reportedly dropped on Fordow. The GBU-57A/B relies on mass, not firepower, 30,000 lbs of tungsten, delayed fuses, inertial guidance, and geological stress sequencing. But Fordow was built for this. Its design assumes MOP logic: curved tunnels, offset caverns, anti-penetration strata, layered redundancy across ventilation, C2, and IR-6 centrifuge chambers. A single hit collapses nothing. 2 breach a tunnel mouth. To truly destroy the core, you’d need tight sequencing, vector convergence, telemetry confirmation, and real-time damage layering. That didn’t happen, at best, they sealed an entrance. Iran reports no core disruption, no enrichment halt, and no internal collapse.

To drop 6 MOPs means either 3 B-2s in simultaneous action or 2 conducting multiple flyovers, deep in contested airspace, without strike escort, in one of the most monitored radar corridors on earth. If Fordow was gone, you’d see craters, electromagnetic rupture, emergency airlifts, seismographs lighting up, and IR flares beneath the mountain. Instead, we got a tweet from an account run out of Northern Israel, yelling “Fordow is gone,” while hawking Gaza’s Most Wanted trading cards.

Tomahawks on Natanz and Esfahan add nothing. Cruise missiles are subsonic, non-penetrative, and designed for surface-level disruption. You don’t decapitate nuclear infrastructure with Block IVs. You flick switches. You scorch perimeters. You stage headlines. A thousand-pound warhead doesn’t cut into fuel halls or disrupt cascade chambers beneath 20 meters of hardened casing. This was a signal to domestic media cycles and Tel Aviv psyops operators.

As of now, there is no SAR confirmation. No crater clustering. No multispectral flash analysis. No underground fire signature. No BDA loop. If Fordow still spins tomorrow, Washington just pulled off the most expensive influence op in bunker-busting history, only to watch Tehran climb the escalation ladder unscathed.

https://x.com/iwasnevrhere_/status/1936595834851975603

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HODL 6mo ago

Apparently it was 12 not 6

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The Stacker Monster 6mo ago

The Maxar frame confirms it: Fordow’s heart is still beating.

Despite the drop of at least 6 GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrators, the imagery shows that the damage pattern skirts the outer shell of the site. Crater geometry and spacing are consistent with volley-mode sequencing designed to minimize shock front overlap, but all visible penetrations hug the periphery, either due to mis-queued coordinates or deliberate decoying via the site’s curved adit network.

The visible ejecta tells its own story. Opacity is low in the VNIR band, indicating a dust-only loft, no oxidized blast pattern, no epithermal signature, no heat venting. This means the warheads expended most of their energy in the overburden. No concentric spalling rings, no radial fractures exceeding 50 meters, and no post-strike IR bloom to indicate a breach of the core’s thermal envelope. The shallow subsidence patch at the upper center measures less than 10 meters across and under half a meter deep, nowhere near the magnitude required to indicate a cascade hall collapse.

What is visible is denial work. Fresh spoil piles flank the tunnel mouths at the southern bend, light-toned and loosely compacted, indicative of rapid back-blading by engineering crews, not post-strike structural failure. This suggests Iran moved quickly to obscure ingress points, either to mask internal survivability or mislead further ISR analysis.

The main enrichment halls, estimated at -90 meters below surface, remain sealed, pressurized, and likely electrically fed via alternate routing. What was damaged is surface infrastructure: access shafts, intake routes, possibly control galleries. All of it replaceable. None of it critical to cascade function.

Washington may claim a show of force, but Fordow endures. The media got their mushroom dust, the Pentagon got its footage, and Iran got a live test of its subterranean resilience. The deeper program survives, untouched beneath 90 meters of mountain.

https://x.com/iwasnevrhere_/status/1936795685111656696