I don't think most red states will put up with covid regs by themselves again, but add a market crash and war and civil unrest, and the govts will push really hard to lock everyone down again.
Discussion
I honestly think they all will. I think all the 'defiant' states were nothing but honey pots. Particularly Florida. They have a literal forced vaccination provision in some law DeSantis signed in 2020 or 2021. If they do it again, its almost certainly gonna be nothing like 2020. They won't do what we expect, that's for certain. I'm not implying I have an idea what I think that might be, but logically it will much more harsh if they go live
In Texas, law enforcement refused to enforce lockdowns, but the hospitals got away with forcing employees to get the shots. Meamwhile, only 45% of the pop here took the shot and even less got the booster. They may not get us with covid and so have to do something like release the cartel thugs on us to deliver some good old suburban terror.
Oh Im not saying there won't be localized pockets of pushback, that is a guarantee. But if, and again I stress IF, they do it again, they are almost certainly gonna make sure all are aboard that need to be ie governors, big city mayors, etc. 2020 was just a beta test. In the US at least, they weren't really serious other than maybe in NY and Cali (media optics). Basically what I am trying to say, is don't count on anyone or anything that is paid by the government to do the right thing. Expect the unexpected and hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
I've made it this far by expecting the unexpected.