FTX had zero Bitcoin to sell, the crash was all just crypto rebalancing and sentiment at the bottom. Most of the correction was because of Fed policy and a lack of understanding from new market participants. Both of those factors will no be able to be replicated again.
I think -50% is the best we could potentially get. Happy to be wrong because it would be the easiest money ever. But I'm actively betting against it.
There has been a consistent trend according to the Bitcoin podcasts I follow. During the bull market, people degen and take on leverage then get wrecked and a bear market happens. We’ll see what happens this cycle.
It just seems too obvious. Current sentiment makes it seem like the top will be 120k and there will be a chance to buy at 30k later. I can only see -75% happening again if we melt up to closer to $1M.
Sentiment is usually not a good measure of what the price will do. People thought we were going to $250k last cycle and we topped at $69k lol
