Week 4 ATS Picks

I won’t rehash how terribly I did last week in detail beyond saying I went 1-4 on both sets of picks, and the four losses were by massive margins for each.

It is what it is, but don’t try to fade me this week because I’m liable to go 4-1 if you do. And don’t bet my picks because I’m liable to go 1-4 if you do that. The only way to deal with a capper on a bad streak is to ignore him. In fact, stop reading right now if you know what’s best for you.

For those of you who aren’t betting, but just want to root ghoulishly for my ATS season to implode further, here are this week’s picks:

Normal 1 and 2

I thought the Jaguars should be favored by six, but that’s because I forgot this game was in London. Still London is almost a home game for the Jaguars who are used to the trip, and the Falcons can’t complete a forward pass. I’m buying low on Jacksonville.

I took the Niners almost as an “ugly” play because that line is too big. It’s too big, so I took it. The Cardinals have played everyone tough and could easily be 3-0, but this is a tough matchup for them, and things can get out of hand against the 49ers. It’s too big a line though — there’s something off about it

The Giants are getting points at home, but we still don’t know about Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley. I just believe in the team, and this is a winnable game they have to have. I think they’ll get it done.

I took the Bills because they do well against the Dolphins who are a bit of a sell high. I’m not strong on it, but I think it’s the right side.

The Titans are one of my favorite teams to bet because they’re tough, and teams don’t enjoy playing them, but this line is less than three, Burrow seems reasonably healthy, and the Cincy defense looked good against the Rams. Plus, the Bengals need this game too.

Ugly

The Tezans seem roughly equal to the Steelers to me. CJ Stroud is already at least as good as Kenny Pickett, and the Steelers offensive line isn’t good. Maybe the Steelers have a better defense, but Will Anderson looks like a star, and they shut down the Jaguars pretty thoroughly last week.

The Team is terrible, and this is a real nose-holder, but the line looks light which means the market knows they play their division rivals tough, and they have a lot to prove after getting destroyed by the Bills. It’s a buy-lowest.

The Bears are terrible, but three points on the road is a bridge too far for the Broncos. Plus, I still think Justin Fields is a player — he just needs the right situation.

The Raiders are, as usual, a joke, but this line feels light, and the Chargers are coming off a fortunate win. I think Vegas keeps it close.

Finally the ugliest of ugly, QB1 against the Chiefs. I’m doing this purely because no one else in his right mind would, but that’s actually not true. The line is where it is because someone is on the other side of that bet.