Euro is gonna fall apart in the next decade imo.
Cannot see a scenario in which Germany wants to stay the payer for all the debt of the GIPS countries.
Monetary union without fiscal union is destined to fail
Discussion
that or a significant devaluation event
can’t imagine how europe manages to continue keeping the prosperity it currently enjoys. there’s nothing backing it!
The most "interesting part" is going to be what germany does now. Because their biz model gets hit from every possible direction.
Cheap energy and industrial inputs, that's over for at least several years. Export to china seems shaky. US is making sure import from EU isn't competitive with subsidies. EU is pushing unrealistic "green" agenda that kills the car production (key export, big employer) amongst other things.
So what happens when germany stops being the cash cow for the rest of EU? I guess that's the convergence, just the other way. Greece won't get lifted to the Germany level, other way around.
That said, there is so much wealth and potential in europe, so one can hope it gets used.
there is good non-intuitive reason to believe that a collapse of the euro is bullish