There are a lot of ignorant people trading all sorts of things. That may prevent the efficient-market hypothesis from being 100% true, but it’s still approximately true. Knowledgeable traders will arbitrage until the current price reflects what we have good reasons to believe. Even private knowledge often affects prices, if the knower is allowed to trade.
Discussion
I’ve been disappointed enough times to stay humble. A $1 million prediction is not very humble, IMHO. That doesn’t mean I’m not really bullish, but I also know about unit bias and human nature.