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Interesting how almost every Bitcoiner is so sure that there's an imminent bitcoin bull market coming.

I mean, I would like it, there's etf and halving hopium, but remember, it's all numerology and past cycles do not have to repeat.

Halving is more symbolic, the whole amount of coins that are mined per year are usually traded in less than a day, so it's not a significant price pressure.

Etfs depend on crazy bureaucrats and are going to bring people who will be misled into thinking they own bitcoin - if they happen at all.

And if it's so certain, we should be in the bull market now, it should by priced in, right?

For me, the most interesting question is what happens when the halving numerology fails for the first time? How many people will leave? Should they have entered in the first place?

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Discussion

Karel od Martiny 2y ago

Ye, it is always good to be prepared (by having a plan and emotions all set) to make the most out of both scenarios. Up or down. To be able to find something positive in both cases and to be able to grow from them. Actually, I would be happy with both options right now, since both can have their positives and negatives - nothing is just black and white “good”, not even bull market. The worst scenario for me would be the end of bitcoin volatility and stabilisation of the price somewhere around 40000 forever, i do not have a plan for this.

Juraj 2y ago

Market definitely does not think that the price will go sideways, implied volatility of half year options is in the 30%-50% range (that is annualized volatility implied by option prices).

Exodia38 2y ago

If you can sow doubt in the minds of people, a tiny fraction of them can treat bitcoin seriously and adopt it effectively. If at least a person can adopt bitcoin and be part of the network in each iteration, that represents an exponential increase in the power of bitcoin.

I don't like the idea of degenerates trying to scam other people (because it's completely unconstructive) but if you need lemonade ... the point is Bitcoin goes up no matter the plans of any adversarial participant.