My View of the Current Macro Data:
GDP growth: Slowing
Inflation: Choppy sideways (end of disinflation regime)
Unemployment: Early stages of acceleration?
High yield OAS: Stable
US net liquidity: Sideways (since late April 2022)
Worldwide liquidity: Sideways
Manufacturing: 10 straight months of contraction
Manufacturing new orders: 12 straight months of contraction
Services: Still mildly expansionary
Real interest rates: Rising
Yield curve: Bearish steepening
Until something changes, regarding risk assets...
Near-term (days/weeks) outlook: Crabby π¦
Mid-term (months/quarters) outlook: Bearcrab π»π¦
(FOR INFOTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.)
